A very strong start for Briefcase multi-asset model portfolios in 2025
In a year marked by market complexity and rapid shifts in sentiment, Briefcase’s multi-asset, ETF-only model portfolios delivered strong outcomes for clients in 2025.
Led by our Chief Investment Officer Martyn Wild, the investment team remained disciplined and research-driven at a time when many managers retreated from perceived volatility. In contrast, Briefcase took a different path – not by ignoring risk, but by attempting to understand it more completely.
Looking beyond volatility: A probabilistic view of risk
Traditional portfolio construction is typically grounded in mean-variance optimisation (MVO), where volatility dominates the definition of risk. The consequence is an underweighting of assets that appear volatile on the surface – including commodity exposures such as gold and silver, or growth-oriented segments like the NASDAQ-100.
Briefcase takes a broader view of risk: volatility is just one aspect to be considered. Crucially, it is the distribution of returns that is of greater consequence.
Our framework is grounded in probability theory, which we assert facilitates a deeper assessment of asset behaviour and diversification potential. Importantly, our approach does not rely on return forecasting but instead builds expectations of uncertainty directly into our model inputs. It is this distinct process, we believe, that results in the construction of portfolios that are robust across a wide range of market outcomes.
Our process in action
2025 was a solid endorsement of our approach.
Periods of heightened uncertainty tend to expose the limitations of traditional portfolio construction. In particular, volatile markets generally result in portfolio de-risking for many (if not most) multi-asset managers.
In contrast, our process identified return opportunities and diversification benefits.
As a result, we held positions in assets like silver, gold and NASDAQ-100, where most did not. Even though our positions were at times modest, these exposures (combined with other diversifiers) meant that our key models delivered double-digit returns for clients.
Crucially, Briefcase can select from a broad range of ASX-listed ETFs. Any issuer, any ETF, is in our opportunity set provided it passes our screening process. We are not limited by vertical integration. We encourage readers to check-out our relative performance on the Praemium platform: https://www.praemium.com/ResourcesByName/2475/december-2025-model-portfolio-performancepdf.
Our Balanced, Growth and High Growth models delivered 9.5%, 12.0% and 12.4%, respectively, for the 6 months to December 2025.
For those able to see through the ‘noise’ of markets, there are always opportunities to be found.
Want to know more?
Please consult our website https://www.briefcase.au/ for more information on the five models we offer and how to invest. Notably, we offer access to these portfolios in a number of ways: retail SMA, wholesale MDA and IMA on custodial platforms or HIN-based brokers.
2025 was a good start for Briefcase and its clients. Decades of experience have brought us here and we are looking forward to sharing our journey with you.
Regards,
The Briefcase Team
Briefcase Pty Limited (AFS License Number 546257)
This material provides general information only and does not consider your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should assess whether the material is appropriate, having regard to individual objectives, financial situation, needs and circumstances. This material is not a financial product recommendation or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial product in any jurisdiction. Any investment is subject to investment risk, including delays on the payment of withdrawal proceeds and the loss of income or the principal invested. While any forecasts, estimates and opinions in this material are made on a reasonable basis, actual future results and operations may differ materially from the forecasts, estimates and opinions set out in this material. No guarantee as to the repayment of capital or the performance of any product or rate of return referred to in this material is made by Briefcase. Past performance is not indicative of future results.